Semrush Study Reveals ChatGPT Brand Visibility Remains Highly Volatile for Most Industries

A recent study by Semrush reveals that establishing and maintaining brand visibility in ChatGPT remains a highly volatile and competitive endeavor. According to the research, only 15.2% of topic categories have a clear, dominant brand leader, highlighting the challenges companies face in securing AI-generated search visibility.

To determine what constitutes "category ownership" in AI search, Semrush analyzed 1,094 U.S. product and service categories. For each category, researchers used five common consumer-intent prompts: definitions, comparisons, alternatives, use cases, and purchase decisions. To be classified as a category leader, a brand had to appear in at least four of the five generated responses and hold a lead of at least five percentage points over its nearest rival. Only 166 categories met these strict criteria.

Of the remaining categories, 31.2% featured an "emerging leader"—defined as a brand appearing in at least three prompts but without a decisive lead. The vast majority, 53.7%, had no consistent leader whatsoever.

High-Demand Categories Face Greatest Volatility

The study reveals that brand dominance is even harder to sustain in highly competitive sectors. Among the top 50% of categories that generate the most AI search activity, a mere 11.3% had a clear brand owner. In contrast, less competitive categories showed slightly more stability, with 19% producing a dominant brand.

This discrepancy is particularly significant for digital marketers because the highly competitive categories account for 98% of all AI search volume in the study. Consequently, the vast majority of user interactions on ChatGPT occur within spaces where no single brand has established a firm foothold.

Traditional SEO Metrics vs. AI Visibility

Semrush also analyzed how traditional search engine optimization (SEO) metrics correlate with ChatGPT visibility, uncovering several discrepancies:

• Branded Search Volume: This was the only traditional metric that consistently aligned with category ownership in ChatGPT.
• Organic Traffic and Authority Score: These metrics showed little to no relationship with whether ChatGPT regularly associated a brand with a specific topic.
• Citations vs. Mentions: The study found that citations do not automatically equal brand recommendations. Only 21% of the most-cited domains within a category were also the most frequently mentioned brand in ChatGPT's written responses.

Stability at the Top, Chaos Below

For the select few brands that manage to establish decisive category leadership, the position is relatively secure. Category leaders maintained their top ranking in over 90% of month-over-month comparisons.

However, the landscape is incredibly fluid for everyone else. Across emerging and unsettled categories, the top brand changed nearly 2,000 times over the course of the study. Smaller leads were highly vulnerable, with narrow margins frequently resulting in leadership shifts.

Ultimately, the findings indicate that AI visibility is not a matter of ranking for single, isolated keywords. Because ChatGPT answers vary significantly depending on the specific angle of a user's question, brands must focus on being consistently associated with an entire topic throughout the consumer's decision-making journey.